Yogi and the State of the Mets

“It gets late early out here.” - Yogi Berra

In recent years it has become clearer and clearer that no one figure – not even Casey Stengel – is as passionately loved by both Mets and Yankees fans the way Yogi Berra is. There are times when I myself become convinced that nobody “gets” the Mets like Yogi does.

Think about that for a second: Yogi Berra, a Champion Yankee if there ever was, is just as much an embodiment of Metsdom as he is of Yankeedom.

After all, the Yogi-ism to end all Yogi-isms was authored in the late summer of 1973: “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” Yogi uttered that timeless phrase as manager of those miraculous 1973 New York Mets. The Mets that stormed from last-place on August 30th to a stunning division title, a shocking upset of the Big Red Machine in the League Championship Series, and a very-near upset of the three-peating Oakland Athletics in the World Series. The “Ya Gotta Believe” Mets. Yogi nailed it.

But back to the original quote. “It gets late early out here.” Now take that quote and couple it with the words of John Smoltz (amongst others): “You can’t win a pennant in May. But you sure can lose one.” Now match the two quotes with a 4-8 stretch in which each and every one of the losses was excruciating in its own right: 5 decided in the opponent’s last or second-to-last at-bat, 2 gut-wrenching blowouts at the hands of the sign-stealing archrival, and 1 in which the Mets had endless chances in a game that ended in a 3-2 defeat.

Welcome to crisis mode, Mets fans. You know, the mode Mets fans go into when they lose one heartbreaking game, let alone eight in a twelve-game stretch.

“It gets late early out here.”

Can you think of six words that better express the sentiment Mets fans have about their club right now? The wit and wisdom of Yogi Berra hits the State of Metsdom right on the head. Again.

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What can we objectively say about these 2010 New York Mets? They’re definitely interesting and they seem to care a lot more than they have in recent campaigns.

The most accurate read on the 2010 Mets to this point is this: streaky. They’re streaky in terms of wins-and-losses and also in terms of personnel. The lineup is chock-full of more-than-capable hitters who, historically, are all prone to drastic streakiness. Jason Bay, Jeff Francoeur, David Wright, Jeff Francoeur, and Rod Barajas are all boom-or-bust hitters. None of the five has a batting average over .280. All of them are prone to strikeouts, none more so than Wright who is on a horrifying strikeout pace (38% of his at-bats). The trio at the top of the order hasn’t been particularly special either. “Leadoff” hitter Angel Pagan has an on-base percentage of .326. Obviously the goal is to get Jose Reyes going, but he’s hitting .221 with a horrifyingly low on-base percentage of .275. These Mets have no place to turn for any consistency in their lineup. At this point, the Mets’ most reliable hitter is a first baseman who is just now in his fourth week in the Majors.

The rotation is also quite streaky. As we’ve known for a long time, they need another reliable innings-eater to go with Johan and Pelfrey. The fact that Jon Niese and Oliver Perez in particular struggle to get through even a very modest 5 innings is scary. The bullpen is pitching way too much. Fernando Nieve has appeared in 22 of the Mets’ 35 games. He’s thrown 20 1/3 innings and his effectiveness is clearly beginning to wear off. Hisanori Takahashi has logged 23 innings of relief. (For some perspective on that, starting pitcher Oliver Perez has hurled a grand total of 30 innings to this point without missing a start.) The bullpen as a whole has been outstanding all year, but their workload is a concern.

I believe this lineup has underachieved so far – at least numbers-wise. For Castillo, Reyes, Wright, Bay, and Francoeur, I believe that there is definitely room for improvement with each. But there needs to be a driving force that can be consistent and not as prone to the streakiness that has dominated this bunch so far. The force, of course, goes by the name of Carlos Beltran. He could be the piece that puts a talented lineup over the top. He’d restore Reyes to the leadoff spot. If Reyes gets on base, Luis Castillo is a very reliable second-place hitter. Some combination of Beltran, Bay, and Wright goes 3-4-5. Ike Davis could settle in at sixth, with Francoeur and Barajas at 7-8. The bench has great potential with Blanco, Cora, Carter, Pagan, and Tatis. That team can score runs.

But nobody knows if or when Beltran will return. If he doesn’t, where do the Mets turn?

And how do they address the gaping hole in their rotation, which affects their bullpen and drags down a whole ballclub twice every fifth day?

Let’s face the facts: the New York Mets, as currently constructed, are a slightly above-average ballclub. That’s certainly what their 18-17 record suggests. Their bullpen is outstanding, and they have a tendency to fight that they’ve lacked for awhile now. But they have a pair of obvious shortcomings that will be very difficult to overcome. We can only hope Omar Minaya can make the move(s) that can make the Mets a legitimate contender.